7-9..Oh No??

[Jimmors]

7-9..Oh No??
By Jimmors

Rewind the clock to 2006. Everyone in Bears nation was basking in the glow of our remarkable 13-3 season and eventually crushed by the heart breaking loss in the Super Bowl. Yes, it was heart breaking. Don't try and deny that when Hester ran back that kickoff for a TD, you thought it was our destiny to win that game. Expectations were high for the Bears in 2007, only to see them "collapse" into a 7-9 record, last in their division. I used quotes around the word collapse because it seems that anytime someone mentions the 2007 Bears, they make it sound like the worst you can do in football is hit 7-9. The Bears have been relegated to the bottom of the barrel for 2008, placed in the company of the Falcons and Dolphins as bottom feeders for this year.

Yes, I am an optimist when it comes to the Bears. And I also put very little stock in predictions and sports pundits opinions. Football is played on the field, 60 minutes at a time. Opinions and predictions are pretty much worthless when it comes to sports. This is why sports books rake in the cash year after year. So, I got to thinking...how bad REALLY is 7-9? The only way to answer that is to look at history, previous stats and try to come up with a reasonable answer. And luckily for you, I did just that.

The NFL switched to the current 16 game format back in the 1978 season, and that seems like a logical place to begin the data research since this is the 30th anniversary of that date, and 30 years provides a good amount of data for any statistics and average. I have looked at the past 30 years, determined which teams finished the season with a 7-9 record, and then looked up what their record was the following year. I noted how many teams had a better, worse or same record the following year. I also noted which of those teams also made it to the playoffs that next year after going 7-9 the year before.

There are 3 caveats to the data:
1.In 1982, the NFL played a shortened season of 9 games, so I noted the 4-5 records since it is statistically comparable to 7-9.
2.In 1987, the NFL played only 15 games, so I noted the 7-8 records instead.
3.In 2005 zero teams went 7-9 (the only time this happened in the entire span of the 16 game schedule), so for curiosity sake, I took the teams who went 6-10 instead.

Below, I have listed the year, followed by the teams of that year that went 7-9, and then the record they obtained the following year. If it is was better then the 7-9 record, then it is in italics, and if they made the playoffs, it will be in bold.

Example:
1992
Browns 7-9
Raiders 10-6

In this example, in 1992, both the Browns and the Raiders finished 7-9. In 1993, the Browns finished 7-9 again, and the Raiders finished better with 10-6 while also making the playoffs.

------------------------------------

1978
Bears 10-6
Lions 2-14
Saints 8-8

1979
Bills 11-5
Chiefs 8-8
Vikings 9-7

1980
Colts 2-14
Bears 6-10

1981
Oilers 1-8
Raiders 8-1
Cardinals 5-4
Vikings 5-4
Falcons 5-4

1982
Bills 8-8
Browns 9-7
Seahawks 9-7
Giants 3-12-1
Lions 9-7
Saints 8-8

1983
Colts 4-12
Jets 7-9
Bengals 8-8
Falcons 4-12

1984
Jets 11-5
Chargers 8-8
Saints 5-11

1985
Bengals 10-6
Steelers 6-10
Eagles 5-10-1
Lions 5-11
Vikings 9-7

1986
Cowboys 7-8
Saints 12-3

1987
Bills 12-4
Cowboys 3-13
Eagles 10-6
Cardinals 7-9

1988
Raiders 8-8
Redskins 10-6
Cardinals 5-11

1989
Seahawks 9-7
Lions 6-10

1990
Colts 1-15
Cowboys 11-5

1991
Steelers 11-5
Seahawks 2-14

1992
Browns 7-9
Raiders 10-6

1993
Browns 11-5
Cardinals 8-8
Bears 9-7

1994
Bills 10-6
Broncos 8-8
Eagles 10-6
Falcons 9-7
Saints 7-9

1995
Bengals 8-8
Oilers 8-8
Buccaneers 6-10
Panthers 12-4
Rams 6-10
Saints 3-13

1996
Raiders 4-12
Seahawks 8-8
Cardinals 4-12
Bears 4-12

1997
Bengals 3-13
Falcons 14-2
Panthers 4-12

1998
Steelers 6-10
Chiefs 9-7

1999
Giants 12-4

2000
Jaguars 6-10
Panthers 1-15
Chiefs 6-10

2001
Browns 9-7
Titans 11-5
Cardinals 5-11
Giants 10-6
Falcons 9-6-1
Saints 9-7

2002
Ravens 10-6
Redskins 5-11
Panthers 11-5
Seahawks 10-6
Rams 12-4

2003
Bears 5-11
Buccaneers 5-11
49ers 2-14

2004
Texans 2-14
Chiefs 10-6
Panthers 11-5

2005
Browns 4-12
Ravens 13-3
Eagles 10-6

2006
Bills 7-9
Falcons 4-12
49ers 5-11

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But what's it all mean, man?
Quite simple, now here comes the math!!

In 29 years, there have been 98 teams who have gone 7-9 (or in the 3 instances: 4-5, 7-8, and 6-10). 98 teams is close to 100, so it makes a very good sampling size. Of those 98 teams:

55 (or 56.1%) Have had a better record the following year.
37 (or 37.7%) Have had a worse record the following year.
6 (or 6.1%) Have had the same record the following year.
35 of those 55 (or 63.3%) have gone to the playoffs the following year.

Now for some awards!!
The 1998 Falcons receive the "Dont Call it a Comeback" Award for going 14-2 the season following their 7-9 season in 1997.
The 2001 Panthers and 1991 Colts share the prestigious "What in the Hell Happened?" Award, for going 1-15 following their 7-9 campaigns the year before.
The NFC South is awarded the "Not Quite Mediocre" Award, for having a league leading 19 teams (6 Falcons, 5 Panthers, 6 Saints and 2 Buccs) go 7-9 in the past 30 years. Even though they had both the best AND worst follow-ups (see previous 2 awards).

2007
Ah yes, cant forget last season. This was not included in the data, because they have yet to determine what is in store for these 7-9 teams.

2007 set a record by having the MOST teams in the 16-game era go 7-9. There were a whopping 7 Teams:
Bills
Bengals
Broncos
Bears
Lions
Saints
Panthers

There's your parity right there. But I will now make a prediction. But unlike other prognosticators predictions, mine will be based solely on the data above. Since there is a 56% chance of having a better record, I predict 4 of these teams will be 8-8 or better this season. I predict that the other 3 will be 7-9 or worse. Also, since there is a 36% chance of making the playoffs (or 63% of the 4 who will be better), I predict that 2 of these 7 teams will make the playoffs this year.

And just for poops and giggles, here is my prediction of which teams will finish with what (just so i can check back at the end of the season and see how close i was):

2007
Bills 5-11
Bengals 7-9
Broncos 9-7
Bears 10-6
Lions 6-10
Saints 11-5
Panthers 8-8

And there ya have it. The ugly truth of being 7-9 in the NFL.

[bhbballer13]

wow great read

[P'Dawg]

Dude, your bad ass! Great work!!

[Guitarzan-54]

That's some seriously great stuff jimmors!.......




.

[MadMack]

Great work! I would be interested to see, especially in teams that did not improve, if the prognosticated preseason schedule difficulty ratings impacted or seem to have any relevance to the data.

[4th and 26]

I say we put a petition together and get Marriotti removed and have him replaced with Jimmors.

[mjm]

Originally Posted by 4th and 26

I say we put a petition together and get Marriotti removed and have him replaced with Jimmors.

I second that!!!! I hope you printed that out Jimmors. It will be interesting to see how close you are.

[Ringo]

as it happens i took a great deal of acid last night. getting through all that madness to come home and read this little article really helped me put it all back together again. and gain some much needed perspective about everything. so good job and thank you

[Sunbiz1]

Pffft, don't need a logistical breakdown of why the Bears will improve over last seasons' record.

Show me on the field, so far we look like shit.

[nerrad]

we will be lucky to be 6-10

[nerrad]

Originally Posted by Sunbiz1

Pffft, don't need a logistical breakdown of why the Bears will improve over last seasons' record.

Show me on the field, so far we look like shit.

are you joking? we wont have a better record then last year unless our offensive line can open up holes for the running game and give a qb a few seconds.

[Jimmors]

well, i predict we will have a better record. Everyone else can remain pissy and pessimistic for all i care, more power to you.

[nerrad]

Originally Posted by Jimmors

well, i predict we will have a better record. Everyone else can remain pissy and pessimistic for all i care, more power to you.

i try to stay optimistic but after what i saw last night from our line. i cant be optimistic with that line

[Jimmors]

Its the preseason. If you judge a team based on how they perform in the preseason, then you will grow weary of being disappointed.

[Riczaj01]

nice read; I think going back past the mid 90's is going back to far though since the game has changed A LOT, since then.

Preseason records don't matter, but preseason play is a pretty good indication. The O Line will make it very difficult to win 10 games. But I'll say we will be between 7-9 wins. Injuries can happen to other teams too, and our D and ST's should be able to put us in good field position to score if the OL can hold up enough for Orton to 3 step drop and release. To get to 9 or 10 wins everything would have to break our way. This team could be anywhere from 5 wins to 10, but right around .500 is more likely the scenerio.